UK consumer confidence fell in September 2026 for the first time in months. However, averages like this hide big differences between households – some customers are cutting back hard while others are barely affected. Brands get more out of the data by working out which of their customers are under pressure, how those customers are adjusting, and whether gloomy sentiment is actually turning into changed behaviour.
What the latest data shows
According to the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) latest figures, UK consumers’ confidence weakened in September, with their outlook on the economy, their own finances, and retail spending all getting worse. Expectations for the economy over the next three months dropped to -34, from -28 in August, and expectations for personal finances fell from -9 to -15.
Other data points the same way. S&P Global’s household survey found that families remained hesitant about committing to big-ticket purchases like cars, holidays, and appliances, while drawing down their savings quickly. Energy costs are also adding to the pressure, with Ofgem’s price cap set to rise by 4% from the 1st October and reports suggesting a further increase of as much as 25% could follow in January 2027.
Headlines like these tend to trigger the same reaction in many businesses: tighten spend, push promotions, and wait for things to improve. But a single national figure rarely tells you much about your own customers.
The average hides very different households
A confidence index is an average. It tells you how the country feels overall, not how your customers feel. That means ‘average’ figures can hide a lot of detail.
Baringa’s latest spending outlook describes a growing gap between wealthier households, who are driving growth, and financially stretched consumers, who are reducing their spending. The BRC also noted that the drop in confidence was considerably steeper among women. Even the energy price rise lands unevenly: gas bills go up by roughly 8%, while homes without gas will see an increase of under 1%.
Two customers who look identical on age, region, and income can therefore be having very different autumns. One might be on a fixed tariff with secure employment and savings. The other might be on a variable tariff, worried about their job and already relying on credit. If you treat them as one group, you’ll probably misread both.
Sentiment isn’t the same as behaviour
The second trap is assuming that how people feel translates directly into what they do.
In the same BRC survey, confidence fell sharply, yet expectations for overall spending stayed flat at +15. People can feel pessimistic and still spend as much as before. Or they may keep spending on some categories while quietly cutting others.
Pressure also rarely shows up as a simple “spend less”. It tends to take different forms:
- Delaying: putting off a replacement car, sofa or holiday rather than abandoning it
- Trading down: switching to own-label brands, a cheaper tier, or a smaller pack
- Trading out: dropping a category altogether, such as a subscription or eating out
- Protecting: ringfencing the things that matter most, even while cutting elsewhere
Each of these calls for a different response. If your customers are delaying, the demand is still there, and your job is to stay front of mind until they’re ready. If they’re trading down, your pricing tiers and pack sizes matter more than your advertising. If they’re protecting your category, discounting could give away margin you don’t need to lose.
What brands can do with confidence data
Segment by financial outlook, not just demographics. Asking customers how secure they feel, whether they expect their finances to get better or worse, and how exposed they are to rising bills often explains behaviour far better than age or income. It also tells you how much of your customer base is actually at risk.
Find out how customers are adjusting in your category. General consumer trackers can tell you people are cutting back. They can’t tell you whether your customers are delaying, trading down, or leaving. Asking directly, and comparing what people say with what your sales data shows, gives you insights you can act on.
Revisit how customers see your value. Under financial pressure, customers look harder at whether something feels worth it, and the answer isn’t always about price. Pricing research can show whether a different structure, tier or offer would keep customers who might otherwise leave.
Track over time rather than taking one snapshot. Sentiment moves quickly around events like the Budget and energy price changes. A single survey shows how customers felt in one week, while repeated measurement shows whether that feeling is turning into lasting behaviour.
Frequently asked questions
What does falling consumer confidence mean for businesses?
It means households feel less positive about the economy and their finances, which often comes before more cautious spending. The effect varies a lot by category and customer group, though, so businesses should look at how their own customers are affected rather than relying on the national figure.
Does low consumer confidence always mean lower sales?
No. People can feel pessimistic and keep spending, particularly on categories they value. Pressure often shows up as delaying purchases, trading down or switching rather than simply spending less.
How can market research help during a cost-of-living squeeze?
Research can reveal which customers are under the greatest financial pressure, how this is changing their behaviour in your category, and what will keep them buying. Segmenting customers based on their attitudes towards personal finances – including financial security, outlook, and exposure to rising costs – alongside category-specific behavioural data can provide a much clearer picture than demographics alone. This allows businesses to tailor their response to the customers who need it most, rather than relying on broad messaging or blanket discounts.
Look past the headline
National confidence figures are a useful signal, but they aren’t a strategy. The brands that handle this autumn well will be the ones that know which of their customers are under pressure, how those customers are adapting, and where they can still add value.